There are certain things gamblers say that we all know are complete bullshit.
“This machine is due.”
“I’m leaving after this hand.”
“I’ll win it back.”
And my personal favorite:
“I’m just gonna walk around for a minute.”
Yeah. Sure you are.
The funny part is I know better. I’ve gambled enough to understand how slot machines work. I know blackjack strategy. I know chasing losses is stupid. I know the casino doesn’t owe me shit.
And yet somehow I still catch myself saying some version of these things every time I gamble.
That’s because gambling isn’t completely logical. If it were, casinos probably wouldn’t be nearly as much fun.
You can walk into a casino with a bankroll, a plan, and every intention of making good decisions. Then three hours later you’re $400 deep into a machine you hate because you’ve decided there’s absolutely no fucking way it can go another 20 spins without giving you a bonus.
Ask me how I know.
These are the seven biggest lies gamblers tell themselves — including several I apparently have no intention of ever stopping.
1. “I’m Just Going to Walk Around for a Minute”
This may be the biggest lie I tell myself in a casino.
I’m not going to play.
I’m just walking around.
Maybe Nikki wants to check something out. Maybe I’m going to grab a coffee. Maybe I’ve already been gambling for a few hours and supposedly I’m “taking a break.”
Then I see a blackjack table.
Well, I’m not going to play. I just want to see what the minimum is.
There’s an open seat.
Fuck.
Twenty minutes later I’ve got $200 in chips sitting in front of me and apparently my little walk is over.
Slots are even worse because you don’t even have to make the commitment of sitting at a table. You can throw $20 into something because it “looks interesting,” lose it, throw another $20 in, and suddenly your innocent walk through the casino has its own bankroll.
Vegas makes this especially easy because there’s always another casino five minutes away. One of the reasons I love staying somewhere like The Cosmopolitan is the location, but being surrounded by that many casinos also means a simple walk down the Strip can turn into an accidental casino crawl pretty damn fast.
I’ve turned plenty of quick walks into hours of gambling.
If I actually want a break, I’ve learned I need to get off the casino floor.
Go outside.
Get something to eat.
Do literally anything that doesn’t involve walking past 600 opportunities to make another bad decision.
Because “I’m just walking around” usually means “I haven’t figured out what I’m gambling on next.”
2. “This Machine Is Due”
I know how random number generators work.
You probably know how random number generators work.
Every normal spin on a modern slot machine is an independent event. The machine doesn’t give a shit that you’ve lost $200. It doesn’t know you haven’t seen the bonus. It isn’t sitting there thinking:
“Damn, Mac has really been taking a beating. We should probably give him something.”
But apparently part of my brain still believes that’s exactly how this works.
Huff N’ Even More Puff is probably my worst example.
I’ve played that damn game so many times without getting the bonus that every time I see one, part of me thinks I have to be getting closer.
I’m due.
No, I’m not.
That’s not how it works.
But when you’ve been feeding a machine money and nothing is happening, your brain starts trying to justify continuing.
“I’ve already put $100 in.”
“It hasn’t bonused in forever.”
“I’ll give it another $20.”
And another $20.
And another.
Now I’m not even playing because I’m having fun. I’m playing because I’m pissed off at an electronic cartoon wolf.
That’s when it’s probably time to leave.
Nevada gaming regulators have specific technical standards for random number generators used in gaming devices, which is another reason the idea of a slot being “due” doesn’t really hold up.
3. “I’m Leaving After This Hand”
Blackjack players know exactly where this is going.
You’ve been playing for a couple hours and finally decide you’re done.
“One more hand.”
You win.
Well, shit. I can’t leave now. The table might be heating up.
So you play another hand.
You lose.
Now I’m definitely not leaving. I want that money back.
Next hand is a push.
Who the hell wants their last hand to be a push?
So you keep playing.
There is literally no outcome that satisfies a gambler who doesn’t actually want to leave.
Win? Keep playing because you’re hot.
Lose? Keep playing to get it back.
Push? That doesn’t count.
Blackjack? Now you’re definitely hot.
This is also where knowing basic strategy and actually following it are two completely different things. I put together my Perfect Blackjack Strategy Guide because learning the correct play matters, but no strategy chart can make you stand up from the table when your brain has decided the next hand is going to fix everything.
Sometimes the smartest blackjack decision has nothing to do with hitting, standing, splitting, or doubling.
Sometimes it’s picking up your chips and going to bed.
I’m still working on that one.
4. “I’ll Win It Back”
Here we go.
The sentence responsible for some of the dumbest shit I’ve ever done gambling.
“I’ll win it back.”
Technically, you might.
That’s the problem.
I’ve had losing sessions turn around. Every gambler has. You get smoked for two hours and suddenly catch a run where you can’t lose.
Those sessions are dangerous because now you have proof.
See?
I knew I could win it back.
So the next time you’re getting your ass kicked, you remember that comeback instead of the 15 other times you chased a loss and made everything worse.
My worst example didn’t even happen in Vegas.
I once turned $50 into almost $1,000 playing online blackjack while I was at work. The problem was every time I lost, I kept raising my bet.
Eventually, after losing several hands in a row, I actually said:
“There’s no way I can lose another one.”
I bet $700.
Guess what happened.
I lost another one.
That’s chasing losses in a nutshell.
The bet stops being about the game and starts being about getting back to where you were.
That’s also why having an actual gambling budget matters. When I broke down how much money I spent during five days in Las Vegas, gambling money was part of the budget before the trip started. Once you start treating the ATM like an emergency bankroll extension, whatever plan you had is pretty much gone.
Sometimes you’re going to lose.
Take the beating.
There will always be another casino.
5. “One More Drink”
Free casino drinks are one of the greatest things ever invented.
They’re also dangerous as hell.
Because nobody gets dumber after four drinks and realizes it.
You feel fantastic.
Your jokes are funnier.
Your blackjack decisions seem brilliant.
And for some reason betting $50 instead of $25 suddenly feels completely reasonable.
This is another one where I’m definitely not going to pretend I have the moral high ground.
I drink when I gamble.
I like drinking when I gamble.
Part of the Vegas experience for me is sitting at a blackjack table with a drink, talking shit, and having a good time.
The problem comes when “having a couple drinks” becomes drinking for five straight hours while gambling.
Eventually the decisions change.
Maybe your bets get bigger.
Maybe you stop paying attention.
Maybe that ATM starts looking a little more reasonable.
A casino doesn’t have to convince you to make bad decisions when six vodka sodas are doing the job for them.
Have fun.
Just remember your gambling ability does not increase at the same rate as your confidence.
Unfortunately.
6. “I Only Came to Watch”
Bullshit.
Nobody believes you.
You don’t even believe you.
If you genuinely enjoy gambling, standing around watching other people gamble is basically torture.
I can walk into a casino telling myself I’m not playing anything.
Then I hear a table going crazy.
What’s happening over there?
Now I’m watching.
Somebody gets blackjack.
There’s an empty seat.
Minimum is only $15.
Well…
I guess I could play $100.
And there goes that plan.
The same thing happens with slots. Somebody hits a bonus and suddenly you start looking at the machine next to them.
Maybe this whole bank is hot.
That sentence doesn’t even make sense, but casino brain doesn’t give a shit.
This is part of why I enjoy gambling in the first place. Casinos have an energy that’s hard to recreate anywhere else. The chips, machines, lights, people yelling, somebody celebrating a jackpot while somebody 20 feet away is getting absolutely murdered at blackjack.
You want to be part of it.
If you really came just to watch, leave your gambling money somewhere else.
Otherwise you probably came to gamble and just haven’t admitted it yet.
7. “I’m Up Enough to Quit”
This one is tricky because sometimes I really am up enough to quit.
Then I don’t.
Let’s say I buy into blackjack for $200 and run it up to $700.
That is a fantastic session.
I should leave.
But now I’m thinking:
What if I get it to $1,000?
And that’s how the goalpost moves.
Then I lose $100.
Now I have $600.
Still a great session, right?
Except five minutes ago I had $700, so now it feels like I lost $100.
I want my $700 back.
So I keep playing.
Then $600 becomes $500.
Now I’m getting pissed.
Eventually you can turn a great winning session into a story about how you “were up $500 at one point.”
Every gambler has one of those stories.
The stupid part is that the casino didn’t take the win away.
We gave it back.
I’ve made this mistake enough times that it earned a spot in my article about the Las Vegas mistakes I keep making. Knowing when to leave sounds incredibly easy when you’re sitting at home. It becomes much harder when you’re actually winning and convincing yourself the heater is going to last forever.
There’s no perfect amount where your brain suddenly says:
“Yep. That’s enough money. I have absolutely no interest in winning more.”
If there were, casinos would have a much harder time staying in business.
Why Do We Keep Believing This Shit?
Because gambling works just often enough to reinforce every terrible idea we have.
That’s what makes it so powerful.
Sometimes the machine you swear is due actually bonuses on the next spin.
Sometimes “one more hand” is a blackjack.
Sometimes you chase a $300 loss and somehow walk away up $500.
Sometimes you stay another hour and hit the jackpot.
And those are the stories our brains remember.
Nobody sits around telling their friends about the 47 completely uneventful times they threw another $20 into a slot and lost it.
We tell them about the one time it worked.
That’s probably one reason I enjoy reading gambling stories so much. Some of my favorite gambling and Las Vegas books are basically longer versions of the same thing: gamblers trying to beat the odds, beat the casino, or occasionally beat their own terrible instincts.
We know the math.
We know the casino has the advantage.
We know better.
Then we sit down anyway.
Final Thoughts
I could write an article pretending I never do any of these things and give you seven rules for becoming the world’s most disciplined gambler.
That would be lie number eight.
I still chase sometimes.
I still play one more hand.
I still convince myself Huff N’ Even More Puff owes me a bonus.
I still turn “walking around” into another gambling session.
The difference is I’m a lot better at recognizing when I’m doing it.
And I think that matters.
Gambling is supposed to be entertainment. You don’t have to play like a robot or spend your entire Vegas trip calculating expected value on a spreadsheet.
But there’s a big difference between knowingly making a slightly stupid decision because you’re having fun and convincing yourself that a stupid decision is actually a smart one.
So the next time you hear yourself saying:
“This machine is due.”
“I’ll win it back.”
“One more hand.”
Just remember…
You’re probably full of shit.
And so am I.
FAQ: Lies Gamblers Tell Themselves
What are the biggest lies gamblers tell themselves?
Some of the biggest are “this machine is due,” “I’ll win it back,” “I’m leaving after this hand,” and “I’m just going to walk around.” Most of them are ways we justify continuing to gamble after our original plan has already changed.
Is a slot machine ever due to hit?
No. On standard modern slot play, outcomes are determined using random number generation, and previous losing spins don’t mean the next spin is more likely to win. Losing $200 in a machine doesn’t mean it owes you anything.
Why is chasing gambling losses dangerous?
Because chasing usually changes how you gamble. Bets get bigger, bankroll limits disappear, and decisions become about recovering money instead of playing the way you originally planned.
Should you quit gambling while you’re ahead?
If you’ve reached the amount you planned to win — or you’re simply happy with the win sitting in front of you — walking away protects it. The hard part is actually doing it when you’re convinced you could win even more.
How can I avoid making bad decisions while gambling?
Start with a bankroll you’re comfortable losing, decide your limits before you gamble, take actual breaks away from the casino floor, and be careful about letting alcohol change the way you bet. Most importantly, recognize when you’ve stopped following the plan you walked in with.
